The growing importance of new generations and technologies in terrorist activity

Anticipating the future is part of the intelligence analysis conducted by intelligence services. The following scenarios present potential future trends in terrorist activity and factors of social change affecting them. The blurring of ideological boundaries in terrorist operations hampers related foresight to some extent. The scenarios are not mutually exclusive. 

Radical Islamist terrorism is becoming increasingly localised and the perpetrators increasingly younger

The new generation is consolidating its positions in the radical Islamist operating environments of Europe. An increasing number of people linked to radical Islamist terrorism and attack plots are minors or young adults born in Europe far from conflict zones. They lack also concrete links to the terrorist organisations representing the phenomenon. Radical Islamist small groups and wider networks are often international, multi-ethnic and they also involve converts.

For young people, the key events from the viewpoint of radical Islamism – such as the September 11 terrorist attacks in 2001 and the declaration of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) caliphate in 2014 – are history rather than personal memories. They alone are not enough to serve as inspiration for violent radicalisation or action. Instead, in young people’s radicalisation, the emphasis lies on different issues related to their own sphere of life and the sore points they have experienced, through which they interpret global political events. Although broader developments and events outside Europe, as well as international radical Islamist actors, contribute to the radicalisation of individual young people and to the general threat of terrorism, local issues play an increasingly central role in the radicalisation of the new generation. 

The organisation of the extreme right creates a sense of insecurity

In the future development of extreme right-wing activity, three major trends will become emphasised. The first trend scenario is that the violent right-wing extremist movement, currently consisting mainly of individuals and small groups, becomes more organised, increases its capabilities and becomes internationally networked. This can create a sense of insecurity in society.

Violent far-right actions may manifest themselves as extremist hate crimes, such as systematic harassment of immigrants and targeted attacks against individuals. Some supporters of far-right ideologies may resort to even much more serious violence to bring about change in society. Individuals and small groups advocating terrorist action continue to aim at mounting far-right terrorist attacks causing large-scale destruction against those they regard as ideological opponents.  

The second trend scenario is that closed violent national and international online environments, already serving as an important channel for far-right terrorist activity, continue to provide far-right actors opportunities to find like-minded communities and disseminate their ideology. The concerning aspect of this is that more and more minors are getting involved in violent activities, such as attack plots. 

The third key trend scenario in the long-term operations of the extreme right is memory policy, i.e. the glorification of the ‘golden past’. It essentially involves an ethno-nationalist ideology and activities associated with it, such as extreme right-wing fight clubs and the promotion of authoritarian developments through political actors. It is aimed at increasing the social acceptability of far-right modes of thinking in society.

The playing field of the extreme left is expanding

The extreme left is inspired by global concerns, such as climate change, the fight against inequality and capitalism, and the sharing of the disadvantages experienced by minorities. In these themes, it is increasingly ideologically interfaced with, for example, the radical climate and environmental movement. The extreme left seeks to expand its field of operation by radicalising values shared by Western societies and how they are interpreted, for example, in terms of equality and anti-racism. Partly resulting from this, left-wing extremism is expanding, while its boundaries are getting blurred. In the case of violent activism, this may make it more difficult to define individual attacks as terrorism.

Extreme left-wing movements are mainly non-violent, but there are individuals and small groups among them who are willing to use more severe means than before to achieve their goals. In fact, the extreme left has already attacked against critical infrastructure, in Germany for example, causing major financial losses. The most likely targets include critical infrastructure and sites considered to bear symbolic meaning. When making attacks, the perpetrators are likely to avoid causing direct casualties, but especially when targeting critical infrastructure, the attacks may cause indirect personal injuries. In individual cases, business leaders, politicians and other persons perceived as ideological enemies may also be selected as targets of violence. 

Violent anti-government movement is raising its head in Western countries 

In Finland, anti-government extremism has not become as significant a phenomenon as elsewhere in Europe. Here, it is manifested in a non-violent form. Although the threat posed by the phenomenon is currently low, the situation may deteriorate over the next few years. Even in Finland, global events and crises, such as the coronavirus pandemic, have also affected how the phenomenon is developing. This phenomenon is characterised by calling the legality and authority of the current governmental order to question in relation to individuals’ right to self-determination. 

The division of societies between the well-off and disadvantaged populations – and especially the bitterness and hostility towards society felt by those living in municipalities suffering from net emigration and the associated side effects – may erupt as violent anti-government actions not involving any clear ideology. As their targets, the attackers may select, for example, public figures, politicians, civil servants or representatives of ethnic minorities, but also unforeseen parties. 

New technologies are utilised in propaganda and as means of attack

Increased utilisation of technological innovations and their applications, such as AI, will affect terrorist activity. As new technological applications become cheaper and more user-friendly, they will be more commonly used in terrorist operations, including in attack plots. In recent years, innovations related especially to drones have been developed in Ukraine and throughout Africa in particular, from where they have spread to wider use in other conflict zones.  While simple instruments, such as bladed weapons and vehicles, will continue to be used as means of terrorist attacks, in the coming years, 3D weapons or drones are likely to become more commonly used in attacks plotted in Western countries. 

For example, AI and cryptocurrencies have also been employed in non-violent terrorist operations. AI has been used especially for producing and tailoring propaganda for speakers of different languages. Cryptocurrencies, on the other hand, have significantly increased their popularity among terrorist actors in recent years, and they play an important role in terrorist financing.

Hostile states use terrorism as a means of political influencing

The use of terrorism as a means of political state influencing has increased in recent years, even though it was common for states to provide significant support for terrorist organisations already during the Cold War. However, quantitatively, terrorism linked to states is limited compared to terrorism practised by non-state actors. As political competition between major powers accelerates and instability increases, the use of terrorism as a means of state influencing is likely to increase further.

Countries can employ terrorism for influencing purposes in many ways. For example, they may target terrorist operations at parties defined as internal or external enemies, or refrain from intervening in the activities of terrorist organisations or even allow them to operate in their own territories. States can also sponsor terrorist actors outside their own borders. 

Especially countries challenging the international system and the balance of power are using terrorism more actively as an instrument of both internal policy and foreign and security policy. States are not necessarily directly involved but may use intermediaries, such as organised criminal groups or extremist movements, as instruments of their activities. In general, such proxies lack information on the actual motives of the operations or even on the party that has commissioned them. 

Whether such actions are of terrorist nature is determined by the objectives of the state behind them. The purpose of terrorism used by or linked to states may be to stoke fears in certain groups of people or society at large, to accelerate social confrontation, or to force the targeted state to change its political actions in a direction that aligns with the interests of the state using terrorism as a means of influencing.