Continuing instability in the Middle East has extensive repercussions

The Finnish Security and Intelligence Service monitors the development of the Middle East not only from the perspective of combating terrorism and state espionage but also to produce intelligence for the top-level Finnish government on developments that may affect its decision-making both in Finland and in international fora. The Finnish Security Intelligence Service also examines the Middle East because the states, alliances and conflicts in the region bear an exceptional symbolic value for actors representing many different ideologies and policies in Western countries. In the Western debate, the Middle East is often reduced to a cradle of terrorism and conflict, but this is a very narrow viewpoint on the region. There are major changes taking place in the Middle East.

Conflicts in the Middle East are reflected in international politics and the economy

The Middle East has been unstable and divided for a very long time. The countries in the region, the various factions within them, but also external powers have many intersecting interests in the Middle East, which has led to recurring conflicts. Over the past year, the situation in the Middle East has changed significantly and, for the first time in decades, sudden changes have happened in the region: Iran has lost a great deal of its regional influence, an unstable ceasefire has been achieved in Gaza and the long Assad regime in Syria has ended. In addition to all the changes last year, the traditional importance of the Middle East region for terrorist organisations has diminished and changed character. However, the Middle East still remains a major hotbed of terrorism. 

There is still considerable uncertainty surrounding the development of the region, and individual countries can play a major role in determining in which direction the region as a whole will develop. Value conflicts between countries in the Middle East often have international repercussions on the relations between states, international politics and the economy. Major operators in the Middle East include not only states but also partly state-sponsored terrorist organisations, rebel forces and other non-state actors. 

Many countries in the Middle East have suffered from long-term wars and violence, which has contributed to terrorism and radicalisation and, consequently, has also had repercussions on Europe and Finland. The region’s strategically central location and significant natural resources have made it an area of permanent interest for major powers. The countries of the Middle East account for a significant share of the global oil and natural gas production, and the Red Sea serves as an important shipping route. The supply chains of Finnish companies and commerce are also dependent on the route. A significant share of the telecommunications connections between Europe and Asia also run through the region. Finland having joined NATO, the security threats on the southern border of the alliance also concern Finland. In recent years, several countries in the Middle East have also become bigger players in international politics than their size suggests. 

Traditional terrorist organisations have weakened

The fragile states and long-term conflicts in the Middle East have long served as hotbeds of terrorism, and this is highly unlikely to change in the coming years. Another contributing factor to the situation is the demography of many countries suffering from long-term conflicts: most of the population are young people, and terrorist organisations are exploiting their poor prospects as a means of luring them in by offering money or an ideology that brings meaningfulness to their lives. Lack of prospects is therefore one of the main reasons enabling radical operators to radicalise people.

The principal international terrorist actors in the Middle East continue to be the radical Islamist organisations ‘Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant’ (ISIL) and Al-Qaeda. Most of the attacks by these organisations take place in the Middle East, but they have also targeted Europe and other Western countries and Africa. In addition to these organisations, the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) has been operating in different countries in the Middle East for decades. It is still unclear how the peace process initiated between the PKK and Türkiye in 2025 will affect the future of the organisation. The terrorist organisations that have been operating in the Middle East for decades, such as Hamas and Hezbollah, have weakened significantly over the past few years.

In recent years, the international Anti-ISIL Coalition has driven the operations of ISIL as an organisation into a corner. This may inspire terrorist organisations to raise their profile with a dramatic attack in the West. The essential question with a view to state-sponsored terrorism targeted against Europe is how well organisations such as ISIL can get organised in different countries. However, despite the counterterrorism operations against the leaders of ISIL, the organisation continues to have long-term structures in the Middle East. It has proven to be particularly persistent in Syria and Iraq. At the moment, it is important to monitor ISIL’s operations in Syria in particular.

Any successfully mounted major attacks in Europe increase the deterrence of extremist organisations, helping them raise awareness of their own activities and recruit new members. Another aim of terrorist attacks is to reduce the Western countries' willingness to act outside Europe, including in the Middle East and Africa, or even to make them withdraw physically or politically. A strong response to such attacks by Western countries is likely to increase the popularity of terrorist organisations, for example, as a counterforce to Islamophobia.

The unresolved conflict increases the risk of radicalisation in both Israel and the Palestinian territories

The conflict which flared up in October 2023 between Israel and Hamas, the terrorist organisation that has been holding the actual power in Gaza, ended in a fragile ceasefire in autumn 2025. In Israel, the grief and desire to avenge Hamas on behalf of the victims of the attack and the hundreds of hostages held by them led to unprecedented military action in Gaza. Israel has been suffering from the terrorist attacks by the radical Islamist organisation Hamas for a long time. However, after October 2023, the attitudes towards the Palestinians hardened even more. 

In both Israel and the Palestinian territory occupied by it, the effects of the conflict in Gaza are both physical and psychological – and very long-lasting. 

The prolonged Israeli-Hamas conflict in the Israeli-occupied Palestinian territory (Gaza, West Bank and East Jerusalem) has led to a lack of prospects that Hamas has been able to exploit in its recruitment activities. In Gaza, the long-term impacts of the conflict extend even further, as a lack of infrastructure and, for example, a lack of primary health care and education will affect people’s living conditions for decades. 

The impacts of the conflict in Gaza extend also well beyond the Middle East region, as for many people, both Israel and Palestine have held important symbolic meaning for a long time. For example, for Christians, Muslims and Jews, Israel and the Palestinian territory are sacred land. For left-wing actors, the Palestinian question is important, as it is based on their desire to expose the consequences of the use of colonialist power and fix its long-term effects throughout the Middle East. For right-wing conservative actors, on the other hand, the Jewish state and its desire to expand to the occupied Palestinian territories are among the key themes. 

The prolonged ideological conflicts and related violence have been radicalising various actors for decades. In the long run, the unresolved conflict is likely to increase bitterness and the risk of radicalisation in Israel and the Palestinian territories it occupies, as well as more broadly across the Middle East and the rest of the world. Even if a permanent peace agreement were reached for the region, the risk of violence breaking out again will remain high. There are no simple solutions for achieving a lasting peace.

Over the past two years, the Finnish Security and Intelligence Service as well as many other European security and intelligence services have repeatedly stressed the increasing threat against Jewish communities and Israel. The conflicts in the Middle East have been reflected in the motives of many terrorist actors in Western countries and the Middle East. Anti-Semitic, Islamophobic and polarising speech and propaganda also increase the opportunities of external actors to influence countries’ internal policies. 

Iran’s strategic position has deteriorated

Iran’s current international position is weaker than it has been for decades. The most extensive demonstrations seen in Iran for years began towards the end of 2025, motivated by, among other things, the country’s worsening economic situation. Previously, in 2022 a series of demonstrations known as ‘the hijab revolution’ caused significant unrest within Iran. The conditions of Iranian people are further weakened by the worsening economic situation, mainly due to more stringent sanctions posed by the West. The Iranian regime has responded to both series of demonstrations with violence. Through its armed actions, Israel has seriously weakened two important Iranian allies, Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon. In the neighbouring country of Syria, the regime of Al-Assad, which had enjoyed long-term support from Iran, also collapsed in December 2024. 

In June 2025, Israel and the United States conducted strikes against Iran's nuclear programme. Iran was unable to prevent the strikes or to respond to them in any significant way, since Israel and its allies could clearly intercept most of the missiles and drones launched against the country. This is likely to undermine Iran's ballistic missile deterrence. 

After having lost many of its allies, Iran is seeking to restore several former alliances. For instance, the importance of Iraq for Iran is likely to increase in the future. Iran’s weakening position may make the country’s actions increasingly unpredictable.

A divided Syria threatens hopes for stability 

The regime of the Al-Assad family, which ruled Syria for decades, collapsed in 2024. Many countries that used to wield power in Syria with the help of the Al-Assad regime, including Russia and Iran, had to face a new situation when the power was seized by the radical Islamist organisation Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). The internal disintegration and division of the country following the long civil war constitute a long-term threat to the country’s efforts to restore stability. If the groups opposed to the present situation decide to take up arms and challenge the current Syrian regime led by HTS, a new civil war could break out in the country. If the current Syrian regime fails in its efforts to unite the country or to protect its many minorities, not only political dissident groups but also radical and even terrorist organisations may opportunistically exploit the division and lack of unity within Syria. 

One of the key factors exposing Syria to extremist thinking and radicalisation is the fear of what lies in the future. By promising to give people an opportunity to influence their own future in an unstable situation, especially radical and terrorist groups are trying to recruit new members to join their operations. Syria is likely to remain a breeding ground for groups whose violent actions are not confined within the country’s borders. In such a case, the consequences of the instability in Syria would not be felt only within the country but they would also expand extensively to the neighbouring countries and even Europe. 

Countries in the Middle East seek stability and influence 

There are several countries in the Middle East that have gained greater importance in world politics than their size would suggest, especially in recent years. This is not only because of their oil resources but also because they have sought to increase their role as active players in international politics. For example, some countries have wanted to profile themselves as peace mediators in the context of the war in Ukraine and the conflict in Gaza. Investments in Europe also bring more influence for the Gulf countries. In Asia and Africa, the influence of these countries’ investments is even greater. 

Since the beginning of the 20th century, fossil energy resources have largely defined the role of the Middle East region. The Gulf area will continue to play a key role in terms of global energy prices for a long time to come, even though, on the one hand, the use of renewable energy sources is increasing, and, on the other hand, having reached energy self-sufficiency, the United States is no longer dependent on the region’s oil. Due to the decreasing importance of fossil fuels, the oil-producing countries in the region have already for years been actively seeking to diversify their economies and attract companies, experts and tourists to the area. Regional instability and the operations of terrorist organisations in the Middle East also create significant financial risks for the region’s governments.

All major powers have their own objectives in the Middle East. This gives many countries in the region plenty of political leeway.