Finland must prepare for growth in Russian influencing
Russia is expected to redeploy resources released by the end of the war in Ukraine. This will also increase the threat to Finland.
Russia continues to pose a serious threat to Finland, with no improvement in sight. Russian resources will be freed up for influencing elsewhere when the war in Ukraine ends. The end of the war in Ukraine will improve the ability of Russia to engage in hostile activity elsewhere in Europe as it pursues its political objectives by means both fair and foul.
The use of proxy operators by various states has recently become a more prominent aspect of both the intelligence and broader influencing scenario. Sabotage operations in Europe linked to the Russian military intelligence service GRU are one example of this. By using intermediaries, Russia seeks to cover its tracks. Russian sabotage operations aim to influence public opinion and the sense of public safety, and to overwhelm the authorities in target countries. The main goal at the moment is to undermine Western support for Ukraine.
Finland has not yet become a focus of the intense influencing that has primarily targeted major EU Member States and countries with large Russian minorities or pro-Russia political parties. This will probably change when Russia is able to redeploy the resources that are currently tied up in Ukraine.
“The Western intelligence community has a highly uniform view of the growing threat from Russia. As a country that borders Russia and as a state on the Baltic Sea, Finland must prepare for growth in Russian influencing," says Supo Director Juha Martelius. Supo released its National Security Overview on 4 March.
Finland is a target for continuous and active espionage operations from both Russia and China. It is also an intelligence target of interest to certain third countries, such as Iran. Cyber operations targeted at Finland by Russian intelligence services have increased. They have become more specific, focusing mainly on central government, and on foreign and security policy.
The threat of terrorism has grown slightly
Multiple simultaneous negative trends in the international security situation have also affected the threat of terrorism in Finland. These include conflicts in the Middle East, ISIL networks that have activated in Europe, international far-right networks, and the radicalisation of minors. While the threat of terrorism in Finland has slightly increased, Finland has not emerged as a particular target for international terrorism.
The most likely threat of a terrorist attack continues to come from lone operators and small groups supporting far-right or radical Islamist ideology. The most likely attack will target civilians in a public place, and will be carried out using some readily available improvised means, such as a knife, vehicle or firearm.
In place of the previous four levels, Supo has introduced a new five-point scale to describe the threat of terrorism. The threat now stands at level three (elevated) on this new five-point scale, representing a slight increase from level two on the previous scale. The five-point scale enables the threat assessment to accommodate and show smaller changes. The updated terrorism threat assessment is included in the new Supo National Security Overview.
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