National Security Overview 2022
Phenomena falling within the field of competence of Supo and their development are evaluated in the national security overview.
Foreign intelligence and influence operations
Foreign intelligence services seek to obtain reliable and predictive information about Finland and its people that is not otherwise available. They are also involved in state-sponsored influence operations. The targets of intelligence and influence operations are public sentiment, the preparation and formulation of public policy, and cutting-edge R&D work. The most significant threat of intelligence and state-sponsored influence operations for Finland comes from Russia and China.
Future NATO membership will make Finland a more interesting target for Russian intelligence and influence operations. China continues to target active intelligence operations on Finland, in the form of both human intelligence and cyber espionage efforts.
The threat of intelligence gathering and influence operations to Finland’s critical infrastructure has increased in both the physical and cyber environments as a result of the Russian war of aggression and Finland’s NATO accession process. It is nevertheless improbable that activities seeking to paralyse infrastructure operations will occur in the foreseeable future.
The threat of terrorism in Finland remains elevated, corresponding to level two on the four-point scale. The threat of a terrorist attack in Finland largely comes from lone supporters of right-wing extremist or radical Islamist ideology, and from small covert cells of such individuals. While Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine has not significantly affected the threat of terrorism in Finland or elsewhere in the West, it has aroused interest among extremists.
Phenomena falling within the field of competence of the Finnish Security and Intelligence Service (Supo) and their development are evaluated in the national security overview.